Crystal Baller

Sometimes I feel like I have a real gift of prognostication, a keen (and creepy?) ability to divine future events related to the news I'm currently -- and woefully -- steeped in. This gift used to confine itself to the break-ups of grunge bands, but lately the golden intuition has placed its hand on the realm of politics.

The single recent datum of evidence supporting this theory of my sooth-saying is my early prediction of Mike Huckabee's rise to frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Although I guess I was kind of wrong since he didn't get the nomination, I still think I deserve some credit for how much money I would have made on intrade if I'd had the sense to bet on him. Plus, everybody knew McCain was out of the race months before. With that, I'd say I'm batting .500.

In any case, in order to test these whimsical predictions, I think I should put them in writing, so that's what I have for you today. You can call this a conspiracy theory (and it kind of is), but I don't think there's anything wrong with a good conspiracy theory as long as it's not just crazy. Did white people invent AIDS to kill blacks? That's a little too crazy for me. But just a little.

So here goes:

Although the fact that Barack Obama did cocaine a few times when he was younger was first brought up publicly by Barack himself in his 1995 memoir Dreams From My Father, I here solemnly predict that this becomes a news story sometime after the conventions.

Here's how it might go down:

The Republicans have a lot of time here, so I'm guessing that this is already in the works, or will be soon. There's no way to play this card right now because it will take the right set of circumstances to make it actually "newsworthy" -- a term whose definition has taken a beating with the advent of 24-hour cable news. On the other hand, this set of circumstances can be manufactured, and I expect it will be.

Sometime in late summer or early fall, a study on the effects of cocaine will be published that will receive undue attention from some politically savvy editor from a second-tier newspaper, say The Washington Times, or maybe the Wall Street Journal. Every year there are thousands of studies published that relate to cocaine -- I searched Web of Science and found 562 scientific studies dated 2008 that contained "cocaine" as a search word. One of these studies will contain some reference to the long-term effects of cocaine use, and this will be touted as some "new scientific finding" by the reporter who breaks this "story." The story will contain some mention of the fact that there is uncertainty about how much cocaine one would have to consume for there to be any significant long-term effects. As soon as this story breaks, it will go into rotation with the usual suspects, from Novak to Hannity, and will -- according to them -- justify further probing into exactly how much of the white stuff Obama really did. Although this "story" will at first be shunned by the more respectable news sources, eventually a voter will ask about it at a town hall and Obama's reticence will become the "new story." "Why won't Obama tell the voters the truth about his cocaine use? The voters have a right to know how much drugs the person who has their finger on the nuclear trigger has done!" Sean Hannity will argue with his douchebag brand of fatherly firmness. Eventually, it will come up in a debate, and will finally get its 15 minutes of fame with the MSM including Matthews and others who will bemoan the fact that we are discussing such petty things, but will be forced to talk and talk about it anyway. Mary Matalin is sure to mention it on Meet the Press.

Of course, I think there will be other swift-boating once the general election campaign starts up, but my prediction is that this is sure to somehow be an "issue."

Anybody want to bet me $50 that Mary Matalin says the word "cocaine" on MTP in the next 6 months?

If anybody sees the makings of this in the news over the next months, feel free to report back. And don't blame me when it happens: these guys are way too smart and unscrupulous to let this one get away. On the other hand, if for some reason it doesn't happen, I'm taking credit. I mean, maybe they'll read my prediction and know that it's a play we're all expecting. Either way.